Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Aug 2026 03:22:42 GMT
055
ABNT20 KNHC 130526
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristobal, located over the Atlantic well to the west of the
Azores.
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
midway between the Lesser Antilles and the west coast of Africa
have become a little better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further
development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression
will likely form while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Beginning on
Friday, upper-level winds are likely to become too strong for
development as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for
some development, and a tropical depression could form late this
week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west-
northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Cristobal are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Cristobal are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.
$$
Forecaster Beven
...CRISTOBAL FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM GMT Thu Aug 13 the center of Cristobal was located near 37.7, -39.5 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Issued at 300 AM GMT Thu Aug 13 2026000 WTNT33 KNHC 130233 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032026 300 AM GMT Thu Aug 13 2026 ...CRISTOBAL FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.7N 39.5W ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 39.5 West. Cristobal is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Cristobal is forecast to dissipate tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 13 2026000 WTNT23 KNHC 130232 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032026 0300 UTC THU AUG 13 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 39.5W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 39.5W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 40.2W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 38.7N 37.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 39.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Issued at 300 AM GMT Thu Aug 13 2026851 WTNT43 KNHC 130233 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032026 300 AM GMT Thu Aug 13 2026 Cool sea-surface temperatures and north-northwesterly shear are taking their toll on Cristobal. Satellite images show that the cyclone has become completely devoid of deep convection. The latest intensity estimates from TAFB, as well as the latest DPRINT and DMINT estimates, are near 30 kt, although some of the other objective estimates were still a bit higher. The initial intensity is brought down to 35 kt for this advisory, as a compromise of the data. Based on the increasingly harsh environmental conditions that the storm is entering as well as the latest model guidance, Cristobal is expected to continue weakening, and it is unlikely that convection will make a comeback. Therefore, the NHC forecast now calls for Cristobal to become a remnant low within the next 12 h. The current motion estimate is east-northeastward, or 075/14 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn a bit more northeastward over the next 12 h, and very little change has been made to the previous NHC track prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 37.7N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 38.7N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 13 2026 000
FONT13 KNHC 130233
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032026
0300 UTC THU AUG 13 2026
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Aug 2026 03:22:42 GMT