5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2025 14:49:09 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2025 15:21:52 GMT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181739
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located in the central Tropical Atlantic.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave along the west coast of Africa is producing
disorganized thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Some gradual
development of this system is possible over the weekend through the
middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Mullinax/Blake
...GABRIELLE STILL STRUGGLING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 18 the center of Gabrielle was located near 20.3, -51.7 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 18 2025000 WTNT32 KNHC 181442 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 18 2025 ...GABRIELLE STILL STRUGGLING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 51.7W ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 51.7 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple days, followed by a northwestward turn this weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but some gradual intensification is forecast over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Mullinax/Blake
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2025000 WTNT22 KNHC 181441 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 51.7W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......250NE 180SE 0SW 120NW. 4 M SEAS....270NE 180SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 51.7W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 51.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.1N 53.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...190NE 150SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.1N 55.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...160NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.2N 57.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.4N 59.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 25.9N 60.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.7N 61.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 31.4N 61.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 36.5N 56.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 51.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MULLINAX/BLAKE
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 18 2025010 WTNT42 KNHC 181443 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 18 2025 Gabrielle continues to struggle this morning as a pronounced swirl of low-level clouds is unable to muster up much in the way of deep convection near its center. Gabrielle's poor structure is due to ongoing westerly vertical wind shear and a significant amount of dry air entrainment that is infiltrating its circulation. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on recent scatterometer data of at least 40 kt, but this value remains above the latest satellite intensity estimates. Atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for a couple more days, meaning Gabrielle is likely maintain its current intensity or weaken during that time. It is even possible it could decay into a non-convective post-tropical low for a time. Assuming it survives, most guidance suggests that the storm will move into more conducive conditions that persist into early next week, allowing Gabrielle to organize and strengthen as it tracks north to northeastward. The NHC intensity forecast is near the low end of the guidance envelope for the first 3 days, but lies closer to the middle of the guidance at days 4 and 5. Gabrielle's more erratic track over the past 24-48 hours has now smoothed out over the past 12-24 hours with a west-northwestward motion at 13 kt. This west-northwest to northwest motion should persist over the next few days as the storm is steered primarily by a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. A turn toward the north or northeast is forecast to occur late this weekend and early next week when Gabrielle rounds the western periphery of the ridge and a frontal system approaches from the west. The NHC track forecast was adjusted just west of track given the guidance's more westerly consensus of a weaker system inside the next 48 hours. Gabrielle's forward motion is a little faster as well, especially between hours 48-120 when it should accelerate thanks to increased steering flow on the western side of the Atlantic ridge. Confidence in the long range forecast remains low, and interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle over the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 20.3N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 21.1N 53.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 22.1N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 23.2N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 24.4N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 25.9N 60.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 27.7N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 31.4N 61.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 36.5N 56.2W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Mullinax/Blake
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2025 000
FONT12 KNHC 181443
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 7(30)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
$$
FORECASTER MULLINAX/BLAKE
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2025 14:49:09 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2025 15:21:52 GMT