Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2026 09:22:56 GMT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 220517
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bertha, located over the northern Gulf of America.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
...BERTHA CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 the center of Bertha was located near 29.4, -88.3 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026000 WTNT32 KNHC 220841 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 400 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 ...BERTHA CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 88.3W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM ENE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning east of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana * Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Morgan City, Louisiana, to Cameron, Louisiana * Lake Maurepas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 88.3 West. Bertha is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday with a little acceleration. On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to continue over the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. In the past hour, a wind gust of 49 mph (79 km/h) was reported at Orange Beach Buoy, located offshore of the Alabama coastline. An elevated oil platform located well offshore in the Mississippi Canyon recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust up to 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Louisiana by tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Cameron, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft MS/AL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...1-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals to 6 inches through Thursday along the central to the western Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero. SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2026419 WTNT22 KNHC 220836 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026 0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 88.3W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 88.3W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 87.9W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.4N 89.4W...ON THE COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.3N 91.4W...ON THE COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.3N 93.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.5N 96.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 88.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026000 WTNT42 KNHC 220845 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 400 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Since the previous advisory, Bertha's appearance has gone downhill, with the deepest convective activity separating further south from the low-level circulation which is now mostly exposed offshore of the coast of Alabama. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission in completing its last pass through Bertha found peak flight level winds of 47 kt, and a minimum central pressure that has risen slightly to 998 mb. While a dropsonde launched in the southeast side of the circulation did find a 500 m layer mean wind of 54 kt, a standard reduction from this layer still yields a slightly reduced intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. Given Bertha's current appearance, this could be generous. A combination of aircraft, radar, and satellite fixes indicate that Bertha is moving due west at 270/4 kt. The primary steering feature resulting in Bertha's short-term motion is a mid-level ridge that has been sliding slowly eastward from the southern Plains to become positioned north of the tropical storm. This evolution should result in Bertha maintaining a westward heading over the next 24-36 h, though continued sheared bursts of deep convection forming south of the center may still act to tug it south of this steering motion. One thing worth keeping an eye on is the possibility a new center may try to reform under these convective bursts in the 24-36 h time-frame like what is depicted in some of the hurricane-regional models, though this is not reflected in the NHC track forecast at this time. The latest track forecast is nearly on top of the previous, but just a little faster, roughly in between the latest Google DeepMind (GDMI) and HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) solutions. Bertha's appearance, the presence of 25-30 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear, and land interaction are likely to result in slow weakening over the next 24 h or so. After that point, Bertha's future likely depends on if the circulation remains along the Gulf coast, or if it attempts to reform further south under the convective bursts in the northwestern portion of the Gulf. In the former scenario, Bertha's circulation could open up into a trough like in the 00z ECMWF and HWRF solutions. In the latter case, a new center could reform further south and attempt to reorganize like in the HAFS and GFS solutions. For what it's worth, the Google DeepMind ensemble seems to be roughly split between these two possibilities. For now, the NHC intensity forecast does not stray far from the previous one, showing slow weakening before Bertha moves fully inland over Texas in 48 h, becoming post-tropical and dissipating shortly thereafter. This intensity forecast is roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope and closest to the GDMI solution. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along portions of the northern Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana, including the Metro New Orleans area, through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the southwestern coast of Louisiana tonight into Thursday. 2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected. 3. Interests elsewhere in extreme western Louisiana and along the Upper Texas Coast should monitor the progress of this system, as additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of that area later today. 4. Isolated areas of flash flooding remain possible through early Friday along the central to the western Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern Texas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 29.4N 88.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 29.4N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...ON THE COAST 24H 23/0600Z 29.3N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...ON THE COAST 36H 23/1800Z 29.3N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 24/0600Z 29.5N 96.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2026 000
FONT12 KNHC 220841
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2026
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFAM 290N 870W 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
GULFPORT MS 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
STENNIS MS 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BURAS LA 34 61 7(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
GFAM 280N 890W 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 3 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
HOUMA LA 34 4 19(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
GFAM 280N 910W 34 1 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 1 14(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GFAM 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAMERON LA 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 14(14) 11(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GFAM 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2026 09:22:56 GMT
