5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Aug 2025 02:35:55 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Aug 2025 03:21:42 GMT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 112305
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erin, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several
hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity to the west of its center. Some
limited tropical or subtropical development is possible over the
next day or two as the low drifts westward near the relatively warm
waters of the Gulf Stream. By the middle of this week, the system
is expected to move northward over cooler waters, ending its chances
for further tropical development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Central Atlantic:
A weak surface trough of low pressure located over the central
Atlantic is interacting with an upper-level disturbance, producing
scattered disorganized showers. Development of this system is not
expected as it drifts generally northward over the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.
Northeastern Gulf:
A surface trough in the north-central Gulf is associated with a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While
development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland
on Tuesday, locally heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding
across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern
Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana over the next day or so. For
more information on the rainfall hazards related to this system,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Erin are issued under WMO header
WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on
Tropical Storm Erin are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
...ERIN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 11 the center of Erin was located near 17.6, -32.3 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025740 WTNT35 KNHC 120233 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025 ...ERIN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 32.3W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 2020 MI...3255 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 32.3 West. Erin is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days with a gradual slowdown in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and Erin is expected to become a hurricane later this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025291 WTNT25 KNHC 120232 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 0300 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 32.3W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 32.3W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 31.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.4N 35.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.2N 38.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.1N 42.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.4N 45.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.0N 48.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.7N 51.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 20.3N 56.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 21.9N 61.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 32.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025081 WTNT45 KNHC 120233 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025 After struggling earlier during the diurnal convective minimum, a large convective burst has formed and persisted over the center of Erin for the past several hours, and a recent GPM microwave pass from 11/2237 UTC confirmed that the low-level center is underneath this burst. The latest subjective intensity estimates range from 35-45 kt, and the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have crept up slightly to the 40-45 kt range. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt, which might be a tad conservative. Erin continues moving quickly westward, with the latest motion estimated at 275/18 kt. This general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 2 to 3 days as the tropical storm is steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge to its north. Towards the end of the forecast period, the ridge should erode some, which would allow Erin to turn toward the west-northwest and gain some latitude. However, there are some differences in the global models as to how significant the weakness in the ridge will be, and this will affect how far north the cyclone gets by day 5. Some of the recent model solutions are a bit farther to the left (or southwest) at the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is nudged only very slightly to the left at days 4-5, and now lies slightly to the north of the latest consensus aids. Based on the model spread, the confidence in the track forecast appears to be about average. Erin is expected to remain in low vertical wind shear conditions for the next 3-4 days. The thermodynamic environment is less favorable in the short-term, with sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) around 26-27C, and stable stratocumulus clouds noted just to the west and northwest of Erin. Only slow strengthening is forecast during the next 1 to 2 days until Erin reaches warmer water. A faster rate of intensification is anticipated after that time. The latest NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, and lies slightly below the intensity consensus for the first 36 h. Thereafter, the NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. It is possible that vertical wind shear could increase in 4 to 5 days, but that will depend on where the upper-level ridge is situated in relation to Erin, which is uncertain at this time. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may bring to the northern Leeward Islands, Bermuda, or the east coast of the United States. As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, it is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 17.6N 32.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 17.4N 35.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 17.2N 38.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 17.1N 42.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 17.4N 45.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 18.0N 48.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 18.7N 51.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 20.3N 56.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 21.9N 61.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025 487
FONT15 KNHC 120233
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0300 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Aug 2025 02:35:55 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Aug 2025 03:21:42 GMT