MD 2313 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671... FOR EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Areas affected...eastern Colorado into western Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 671...
Valid 200029Z - 200230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 671
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW671.
DISCUSSION...Supercells continue within WW671, producing 1.75-2 inch
hail across eastern Colorado. Several storm interactions have
occurred, with a hybrid supercell/multicell cluster and outflow
boundary moving southeastward. Storms are steadily moving into a
more favorably sheared and moist/unstable air mass. The threat for
large hail will continue in the short term, with potential for hail
up to 2 inches. Observational trends and CAM guidance would suggest
that storms may eventually cluster along outflow with an increase in
damaging wind potential into the evening.
..Thornton.. 09/20/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 39390205 39290251 39040260 38820262 38740261 38680241
38550200 38310190 38310156 38470138 38650126 38810123
39020125 39300156 39390205
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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MD 2312 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670... FOR CENTRAL PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Areas affected...Central Plains
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670...
Valid 200005Z - 200130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670
continues.
SUMMARY...Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible
this evening. Locally damaging winds and hail will be the main
threats. The need for a downstream watch will continue to be
assessed.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing this evening along a surface
boundary/wind shift that stretches from the south Texas Panhandle
northeast into southeast Iowa. Along and ahead of this boundary,
temperatures warmed and remain in the mid-90Fs to lower-100Fs, with
surface dewpoint temperatures in the mid-to-upper-60Fs along the
boundary. The result is a very unstable environment with MUCAPE
values in excess of 2000 J/kg and DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg.
However, the stronger vertical shear is lagging the instability axis
and remains along and behind the surface boundary. Thunderstorms
ingesting this airmass have been capable of producing measure severe
wind speeds (65 mph) across Dickinson County, KS. These storms will
continue northeast and threaten the northwest Kansas City metro area
over the next couple of hours.
The latest high resolution guidance suggests that ongoing
thunderstorms will continue to move east, northeast and increase in
number this evening. The increase in number of storms with their
congealing outflow boundaries, coupled with nocturnal cooling,
should eventually weaken overall instability and limit the long-term
wind threat, especially with the strongest vertical shear remaining
west of the area.
A local extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #670 just occurred,
and the need for a downstream watch will continue to be assessed.
..Marsh.. 09/20/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...
DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 35840006 37709957 39799715 40399587 40979388 39929331
38509395 37319471 36079667 35599868 35840006
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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MD 2311 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Areas affected...far eastern New Mexico into southwestern Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 192359Z - 200200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few instances of strong to severe wind and marginally
severe hail will be possible this evening.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues near the surface trough
across western Texas into eastern New Mexico. While the air mass in
this area remains moderately unstable amid steep lapse rate
profiles, deep layer shear is fairly weak (around 20-30 kts). This
is also mostly confined to the the area immediately near the surface
trough. This will likely lead to outflow dominant storms with
potential for a few instances of strong to severe wind and perhaps
some marginally severe hail. As such, the threat is expected to
remain fairly localized and should decrease with loss of daytime
heating. This will likely preclude the need for watch issuance.
..Thornton/Hart.. 09/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 32130391 32740322 33840208 34800153 35030133 35160090
35030051 34790017 33720037 32720107 31880193 31530253
31350318 31330357 31460387 31730402 32130391
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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