MD 0914 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0914
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025
Areas affected...Parts of central Louisiana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306...
Valid 210012Z - 210145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe hail and locally damaging gusts remain possible
across parts of central Louisiana -- within Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 306. While a localized severe risk may spread southward out of
the watch, a downstream watch is not currently expected.
DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms with a couple deep/embedded
cores is ongoing across central Louisiana along the tail-end of a
cold front draped across the region. Around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear
(per POE VWP data) oriented mostly parallel to the front is favoring
congealing of cold pools, though the strong shear and around 3000
J/kg MLCAPE is yielding robust embedded updrafts. Severe hail and
locally damaging wind gusts remain possible with this activity. With
time, storms may spread southward out of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
306. While there may be a continued localized severe risk, current
thinking is that the overall risk will likely remain too
isolated/limited for a downstream watch -- especially given weak
large-scale ascent and gradually increasing nocturnal static
stability.
..Weinman.. 05/21/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31279385 31599352 31869297 32019232 32029190 31899166
31599147 31229185 30919294 30839340 30969375 31279385
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 0912 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 305... FOR FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0912
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025
Areas affected...Far Northern Alabama
Concerning...Tornado Watch 305...
Valid 202247Z - 210045Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 305 continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, very large hail and wind damage
will continue over the next couple of hours across far northern
Alabama.
DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Huntsville,
shows two intense supercells across far northern Alabama. These
storms are located near an axis of moderate instability, where the
RAP has MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg. The latest WSR-88D VWP in the
vicinity of the storms has 0-6 km shear of 45 to 50 knots, 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity near 200 m2/s2, and a curved hodograph. This
environment will continue to support intense supercell development.
A tornado will be possible over the next hour, especially as these
two supercells interact with each other. The supercells could also
produce very large hail and wind damage.
..Broyles.. 05/20/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...
LAT...LON 35008647 34988716 34978749 34938774 34808787 34678788
34548771 34488724 34488683 34488623 34688598 34888601
34998620 35008647
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more