MD 2098 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2098
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Areas affected...Parts of Missouri and far southeast Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 181949Z - 182145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in intensity and coverage
while spreading/developing eastward this afternoon into the evening,
posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail. It is
unclear if a watch will be needed, though convective and
environmental trends are being monitored.
DISCUSSION...Within the base of a vertically stacked cyclone over
the northern Plains, water-vapor imagery indicates a compact
shortwave trough and accompanying MCV moving east-northeastward
across eastern KS. The leading edge of associated midlevel height
falls/large-scale ascent -- demarcated by a shallow convective band
moving across eastern KS -- will continue spreading
east-northeastward across western MO through the afternoon. Here,
differential heating amid lower/middle 60s dewpoints along the
eastern edge of the convective band and related cloud debris will
promote a gradual increase in thunderstorms (aided by the glancing
large-scale ascent).
Moderate pre-convective surface-based buoyancy and strengthening
midlevel southwesterlies peripheral to the shortwave trough (around
30 kt of effective shear) will support loosely organized
cells/clusters. Initial cellular/discrete storms will pose a risk of
marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts. However, the
parallel orientation of the deep-layer flow/shear to the axis of
low/mid-level forcing may favor localized upscale growth with time,
leading to primarily a damaging-wind risk. Given the somewhat
marginal deep-layer flow/shear, it is unclear if a watch will be
needed, though convective and environmental trends are being
monitored.
..Weinman/Guyer.. 09/18/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 37449483 38149477 39089438 39759375 40099310 40109239
39819204 38509210 37229247 36749298 36519370 36579413
36789444 37449483
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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