MD 0611 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OK INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0611
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024
Areas affected...Central and East-Central OK into Far West-Central
AR
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 030434Z - 030630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated hail and/or damaging gusts possible for the next
few hours across central and east-central Oklahoma.
DISCUSSION...The combination of modest ascent along a
southward-moving cold front and weak warm-air advection has lead to
the increase in predominantly multicellular thunderstorm across
central and east-central OK. Deep-layer vertical shear is modest,
which is expected to keep updraft organization minimal. Even so,
relatively cold mid-level temperatures, helping support max lapse
rates in the 2-6 km layer around 7 deg C per km. These are steep
enough to support moderate buoyancy and the potential for a few
updrafts strong enough to produce small hail. Elevated character to
most of the storms should limit the wind gusts threat, but
interaction with the front and/or with other storms could lead to a
few stronger gusts (as recently observed with the storm over Wagoner
and Cherokee Counties).
..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 34699640 35399761 35909713 36189602 35789415 34819427
34489471 34489562 34699640
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