MD 0359 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 98... FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0359
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...Northern Mississippi into western Tennessee and
western Kentucky
Concerning...Tornado Watch 98...
Valid 022039Z - 022245Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98 continues.
SUMMARY...A corridor of strong/intense tornado potential is evident
in northern Mississippi and western Tennessee.
DISCUSSION...A corridor of greater tornado risk becoming evident in
northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. Several discrete storms
have developed in an environment supportive of strong/intense
tornadoes. KPAH and KNQA VAD show ample low-level hodograph
curvature (250-325 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). With the low-level jet
strength forecast to increase over the coming hours, the environment
will become even more favorable with time.
..Wendt.. 04/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 34358843 34008929 33879030 33929062 35129041 35899001
36518946 36818914 36878869 36768784 36268772 35308806
34358843
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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MD 0358 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ARKLATEX VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...ArkLaTex Vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 022018Z - 022215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Portions of the ArkLaTex may see an increase of severe
risk later this afternoon into the evening. The timing of the watch
is not certain. All severe hazards appear possible, particularly
with any discrete storms.
DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus and some shower activity has been
noted recently within the ArkLaTex region. MLCAPE has increased to
2500-3500 J/kg where insolation has been more abundant. Strong shear
will promote organized supercells capable of all severe hazards. The
KSHV VAD shows less SRH than areas farther northeast and the
low-level jet should be shifting farther east this evening. That
being said, there will be a window late this afternoon/early evening
where a strong tornado could occur with discrete storms that track
northeast into greater SRH. A watch will need to be considered for
parts of northwest Louisiana into southwest Arkansas.
Along the front in northeast Texas, convection has generally been
anafrontal and only occasionally pulsed in intensity. Given the
primary shortwave trough lifting away from the area with time, there
may not be much push of the front southeastward. Furthermore, cloud
cover has been present most of today and hindered overall
destabilization. It is unclear how much severe activity will occur
in northeast Texas given these factors.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 32239522 32479576 33159599 33539583 33769541 33829513
34019469 33839398 33179281 32979229 32519220 32099238
31909298 31909377 31939433 32239522
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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MD 0357 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0357
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...Portions of central/southern Illinois and western
Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 021943Z - 022145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in intensity and move into
the area this afternoon posing a threat of tornadoes, hail, and
damaging wind. There is some uncertainty on the exact timing of the
threat, but a tornado watch is likely in the next two hours.
DISCUSSION...With an ejecting midlevel trough and associated surface
cyclone to the northwest of the region, the warm front has continued
to lift northward this afternoon. As a result, filtered insolation
and moisture advection have resulted in destabilization, with the
latest mesoanalysis indicating 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE nosing into
central Illinois. Given the strong low-level flow (75 kts at 2-km
AGL per 19Z ILX sounding and recent VWPs) and shear, storms will
pose a threat of strong tornadoes and severe winds.
Convective initiation within the warm sector does not appear
imminent, so storms will likely move into the area from the
south-southwest, where storms have rapidly intensified across
Missouri in the past hour. Convective mode will likely be messy
with a large component of deep-layer shear aligned with the primary
axis of convection oriented south-southwest to north-northeast.
With time, there is some expectation that storms will cluster and
grow upscale resulting in an increasing severe wind threat.
Given the threat of significant severe weather (all hazards) during
the late afternoon and evening hours, a tornado watch is likely in
the next two hours.
..Jirak/Guyer.. 04/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39919026 40678956 40808827 40718694 40148655 39098682
38638716 38218766 37978795 37958853 38298920 38508983
39919026
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT WED APR 02 2025
...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over
parts of the parts of the Mid-South and the lower Mississippi and
Ohio River Valleys later today and tonight...
* LOCATIONS...
Eastern Arkansas
Western Tennessee
Southeast Missouri
Western Kentucky
Southern Illinois
Northwest Mississippi
Central and Southern Indiana
Northern Louisiana
Western Ohio
* HAZARDS...
Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
Scattered large hail, some baseball size
* SUMMARY...
A tornado outbreak is expected this afternoon into early tonight
from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South
and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple
EF3+ tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes,
significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail
will be possible across a broad area from north Texas
northeastward to the southern Great Lakes.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
Read more