MD 0336 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 89... FOR EASTERN IA INTO NORTHWEST IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0426 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Areas affected...eastern IA into northwest IL
Concerning...Tornado Watch 89...
Valid 022126Z - 022300Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 89 continues.
SUMMARY...An enhanced corridor of tornado potential will exist
across far eastern Iowa into far northwest Illinois over the next
couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...A robust bowing segment has developed near a surface
low across eastern IA. Ahead of this intense line of convection,
isolated supercells are noted, with one over Washington County IA
having recently produced a spotter-confirmed tornado. Additional
cells are developing along the MS River within mid 60s F dewpoints
and 0-1 SRH greater than 250 m2/s2. Instability near 1000 J/kg is
noted in latest mesoanalysis as a warm front continues to lift
northward into southern WI. This corridor will support an enhanced
risk of tornado potential over the next couple of hours as storms
continue to mature and move northeast.
..Leitman.. 04/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 41699183 42049154 42299126 42409097 42529064 42559019
42468964 42298947 41908955 41568974 41189006 41049047
41009124 41279190 41699183
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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MD 0335 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS....SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Areas affected...parts of northeastern Arkansas....southeastern
Missouri...adjacent portions of western Kentucky and
Tennessee...southern Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 022048Z - 022245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is underway and
probably will persist into early evening, with potential for
intensification which could be accompanied by at least the risk for
a tornado or two. It is not yet certain that a severe weather watch
will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this
possibility.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has recently been initiating
in a broken band north of Poplar Bluff MO toward the Carbondale IL
vicinity. This appears to be occurring along a corridor of better
low-level moisture return and weak developing surface pressure fall
axis, near the southern periphery of the mid-level cold pool
associated with negatively tilted short wave troughing progressing
across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley.
Destabilization has been sufficient to support only weak mixed-layer
CAPE. This may not improve much through the remainder of the
afternoon, except perhaps across parts of northeastern Arkansas into
the Missouri Bootheel vicinity, based on latest Rapid Refresh
guidance. Even so, this appears focused along the southeastern
periphery of a strong southerly low-level jet axis, including 40-50
kt speeds around 850 mb. It appears possible that low-level
hodographs and thermodynamic profiles could become supportive of
supercell structures capable of producing tornadoes. However, the
extent of this potential remains unclear.
..Kerr/Hart.. 04/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...
LAT...LON 38328857 37558852 35189028 35039105 36719087 38388970
38328857
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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MD 0334 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 89... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN IA...NORTHWEST IL...FAR NORTHEAST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Areas affected...Parts of eastern IA...northwest IL...far northeast
MO
Concerning...Tornado Watch 89...
Valid 022041Z - 022215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 89 continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, hail, and severe gusts will spread
eastward through late afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms has developed across parts of
central/southern IA and far northern MO, immediately in advance of
an eastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant
surface low. A warm front extending eastward from the low continues
to move quickly northward, with ongoing storms expected to persist
as they move eastward across the warm sector.
Ahead of the primary broken line of storms, a supercell has recently
intensified near Ottumwa, IA, where 2-hour surface pressure falls
were maximized on the 20Z surface analysis. This supercell recently
produced 2-inch diameter hail. While surface winds south of the warm
front remain somewhat veered, strong flow just above the surface
(50+ kt at 1-2 km AGL per area VWPs) is supporting 0-1 km SRH of
greater than 200 m2/s2, sufficient to support a tornado threat with
this supercell and any other warm-sector supercell through the
afternoon. Otherwise, large hail and localized severe gusts will
continue to be possible.
Farther southeast, convection is gradually increasing across far
northeast MO/southeast IA, and a supercell or two could evolve
within this region with time, with an attendant threat of all severe
hazards.
..Dean.. 04/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40299322 41199266 41759303 42209217 42549095 42459048
42259021 41808992 41258988 40568992 39849048 39669239
40299322
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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