MD 2354 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of southeast Georgia into the northern
Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 101746Z - 101915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible with wet downbursts
within the stronger storms this afternoon. The severe threat should
be isolated, with a WW issuance not expected.
DISCUSSION...A somewhat organized line of multicells and short
linear segments have developed with the primary confluence band
pendant from Isaias' remnants, which is progressing eastward toward
a destabilizing airmass. Adequate insolation is supporting surface
temperatures reaching 90 F amid upper 70s F dewpoints, contributing
to 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Despite the magnitude of buoyancy present,
mid-level lapse rates are poor (e.g. around 5.5 C/km per 12Z
regional observed soundings), with instability confined to tall but
thin profiles. Furthermore, vertical wind shear is modest, comprised
of 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, whose vectors are roughly
parallel to the confluence boundary.
Given veered, nearly unidirectional wind profiles, the tornado
threat should remain quite limited and brief. Given these factors,
the current thinking is that wet downbursts with the stronger storms
may produce a few damaging gusts. Still, this threat is also brief
and localized, so a WW issuance is not anticipated.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 10/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 29728380 31318302 31778250 31848189 31728134 31368114
30648143 29968209 29538274 29418302 29448338 29728380
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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MD 2353 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2353
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of far eastern Georgia into central and
southern South Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 101700Z - 101830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for isolated tornadoes continues to gradually
increase through the early afternoon. A Tornado Watch issuance may
be needed pending strengthening storm trends.
DISCUSSION...The warm sector within the right-front quadrant of
Isaias' remnants continues to destabilize, with insolation and
low-level warm-air advection contributing to low 80s F/mid 70s F
surface temperatures/dewpoints becoming more widespread over land,
ahead of an approaching confluence band. With time, convective cells
both within and preceding this band should deepen and intensify as
the boundary layer continues to destabilize.
MLCAPE should only reach the 500-1000 J/kg range on a widespread
basis, and be constrained to very thin vertical buoyancy profiles.
Nonetheless, ample vertical wind shear remains prevalent with
Isaias' remnants, with regional VADs still showing enlarged, curved
low-level hodographs and over 400 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH. Therefore,
isolated tornadoes will be possible with the stronger, persistently
rotating updrafts that can develop within this marginally unstable
but highly sheared airmass. The best chance for a tornado will be
with any storms that interact with the northern extent of the more
unstable airmass, which is serving as an effective warm front. If an
appreciable uptick in updraft strength becomes evident, then a
Tornado Watch issuance may be needed.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 10/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...
LAT...LON 31688108 31768187 31918233 32428261 33298271 33798254
34038203 34188149 34178097 34078047 33837996 33537963
33297953 32857965 31688108
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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