335
FXUS64 KHGX 071910
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
210 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions will continue through the forecast period.
  Daytime highs will be in the 90s with heat indices in the
  triple digits.

- Isolated-scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
  and evening. Stronger cells will be capable of producing some
  25-45 mph wind gusts.

- A deeper surge of Gulf moisture should arrive late in the week
  and weekend. Warm, muggy conditions persist with daily chances
  of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are popping up early this
afternoon, mainly over the coastal counties. This activity is driven
primarily by daytime heating and mesoscale seabreeze boundaries.
Further north, weak mid-level troughiness sitting over the ArkLaTex
region will also contribute to some forcing this afternoon. Combined
with PW values in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range, scattered activity
cannot be ruled out, primarily north of I-10, through this evening.
With DCAPE values roughly between 1,000-1,220 J/kg, dry air aloft
could easily accelerate downdrafts, resulting in localized strong
wind gusts with the strongest storms. Locally heavy downpours and
frequent lightning will also be a risk. Expect activity to taper off
between 7-9pm with the loss of daytime heating.

From Wednesday through the end of the workweek, a drying trend is
expected as a mid-level ridge over the Rockies gradually
strengthens, suppressing overall moisture availability. However,
persistent southerly surface flow will continue to transport Gulf
moisture inland. Paired with daytime heating and seabreeze
interactions, expect the typical pattern of isolated morning showers
along the coast, transitioning into isolated storms further inland
by afternoon. Model guidance points to Friday as having the best
overall rain chances during this mid-week stretch.

Heading into Saturday and the rest of the forecast period, southeast
Texas will be positioned in a relative weakness between two ridges.
Despite a bit of broad mid-level subsidence, a surge of moisture will
filter into the region, leading to rain and storm chances (30 to 60
%) over the weekend. Mid to upper level pattern will keep the region
under the influence of persistent troughiness, ahead of an
approaching backdoor cool front moving south from the northeast.
Therefore, daily chances of showers and storms will continue
through the upcoming week.

Temperature-wise, conditions will remain seasonably hot and typical
for July standards. Highs mainly in the mid 90s, with peak heat
indices ranging from 100-107F.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Similar to the last few mornings, we are starting to see some
MVFR cigs/vis develop. This shouldn`t last too long with VFR
prevailing by 13-14Z. Southerly winds will increase to around 8-10
knots this afternoon then become light and variable during the
evening hours. Have introduced a PROB30 for TSRA across all sites
by mid day through early this evening as isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Activity should
wane by 00Z. Patchy fog will be likely once again Wednesday
morning as winds become light.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas (generally
1-3 ft) will prevail through most of the period as surface high
remains strong across the eastern Gulf. A daily risk of isolated to
scattered showers and storms is anticipated, with the best chances
Friday - Saturday and the upcoming week.

JM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  96  77  96 /  30  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  79  97  79  96 /  30  20  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  83  91  84  90 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Castillo
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion