291
FXUS64 KHGX 151030
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
430 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Drier with breezy northwesterly winds today.
- Near record-heat incoming...a warming trend is expected this
week with highs potentially reaching the mid to upper 80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1038 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Based on satellite and radar, the Quasi-Linear Convective System
(QLCS) line that impacted our area is now well to our east, over
Louisiana area. While clearing is occurring from west to east,
wraparound low clouds associated with the main upper-level low will
move over the region on Sunday. Consequently, lingering light
rain (with a few lightning strikes) and/or patchy fog are
possible through early morning with low clouds persisting until at
least early Sunday afternoon. The exception will be across our
northern counties, where mostly cloudy skies will likely persist
through late afternoon/early evening. In addition to the cloud
cover, breezy post-frontal northwesterly winds will filter in,
with gusts between 20 to 25 mph, primarily during the morning
hours. These gusts will gradually weaken in the afternoon as
pressure gradient slackens. Despite the passage of this strong
cold front, a significant drop in temperatures is not expected.
However, mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions will keep
temperatures slightly cooler than previous days, with highs
generally ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s.
A mid to upper level ridge of high pressure will build across the
region through at least the end of the work-week, keeping the area
drier and warmer. The primary forecast concern this week will be
temperatures as the environment will be favorable for near record-
breaking heat. 850 mb temperatures exceed the 99th percentile of the
NAEFS and have reached the Max for GEFS, particularly from Tuesday
into Thursday. The ECMWF Ensemble Extreme Forecast Index suggests
values in the 0.6 to 0.9, increasing confidence (though it remains
moderate this far out) that record breaking temperatures may occur
on Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures from Tuesday through
Wednesday have been increased toward the 75th percentile of the NBM
to account for the strong agreement in this pattern shift toward
above-normal temperatures for this time of year. This results in
forecast highs in the mid to upper 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 430 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Ceilings/visibilities currently range from LIFR south of I-10 to
VFR at our northern terminals. Wraparound cloud cover will bring
MVFR ceilings from north to south later this morning and linger
into the afternoon. This may lead to a brief window of VFR
conditions for some terminals later this morning, but ceilings are
expected to decrease once again to widespread MVFR conditions by
15Z-17Z. Ceilings will gradually lift to VFR from west to east
between 20Z-22Z. Northwesterly to northerly winds will be gusty
throughout the day with 12-17 kt sustained winds and gusts around
20-25 kt. Winds become light and variable after sunset. Anticipating
another round of IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities late tonight
into Monday morning.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1038 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Light showers should gradually end in the coming hours. Winds and
seas will weaken and subside today, remaining below advisory levels.
However, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions remain in
effect for all Gulf waters and bays through midday. Light to
occasionally moderate onshore winds will resume on Monday and
persist through most of the week. With high pressure prevailing over
the region, dry weather will continue.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 47 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 71 54 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 69 57 66 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until noon CST today for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM
NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion