000
FXUS64 KHGX 292311
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
611 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Surface high pressure slides eastward into the Lower Mississippi
River Valley this evening, allowing onshore winds to gradually
return overnight. Light winds, ample low level moisture and recent
rainfall may allow for patchy fog to develop throughout portions of
SE Texas overnight into the early morning hours of Tuesday. High
resolution models indicate the possibility of a showers/storms near
the coast/offshore during this early morning period, though model
trends seems to indicate coverage will be isolated in nature. Lows
for Tuesday morning will be in the 60s to lower 70s.
Onshore flow strengthens on Tuesday, increasing WAA and allowing
moisture to gradually increase. Isolated shower/storms will be
possible in areas south of I-10 during the day as a weak shortwave
passes overhead. Rain chances dwindle that evening as the shortwave
exists east of our area. Highs will be in the upper 70s/80s with
lows in the 60s/lower 70s.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
The developing west to southwest flow aloft will allow for a series
of disturbances/impulses/weaknesses to move across the state and bring
periods of showers/thunderstorms to parts of our area. Generally looking
at Wednesday night through Thursday night as our next best/highest rain
chances, especially for our northern counties (Brazos Valley and Piney
Woods areas). An approaching cold front could bring some additional
rounds of showers/storms to some of our northern region at the end
of the week. Heading into the weekend, showing much less rain coverage
and lower rain chances with the most concentration across our far inland
spots and close to zero chances near the coast/beaches.
With the clouds/rains in the forecast for Wednesday through Friday,
generally have high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Over the
weekend (less clouds/rains), expecting to see slight warmer temperatures
with some upper 80s in the forecast. For lows, anticipating an upper
60s to lower 70s range for a majority of the area.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Currently seeing widespread VFR with isolated MVFR spots emerging,
a sneak peek at a downward trend in flight conditions overnight.
Generally after midnight, look for CIGs and/or VSBY restrictions
from fog to crop up across the area, but particularly where heavy
rain fell yesterday/early this morning. Conditions degrading to at
least MVFR is high confidence, with IFR probable in the pre-dawn
and early morning hours. Pockets of LIFR conditions may be seen,
though this is harder to confidently put in most TAFs right now.
Should see rapid improvement to MVFR mid-morning - and will
optimistically have clouds lift/scatter enough to get VFR across
the area for the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Any lingering showers and thunderstorms will come to an end by this
evening. Lowering winds and decreasing seas can be expected though Tuesday.
A mainly light to moderate onshore flow and somewhat elevated seas are
anticipated this week and into the start of the weekend. Caution flags
might occasionally be needed. Periods of unsettled weather are possible,
though better shower and thunderstorm chances should be situated a bit
further inland for much of the forecast period as the next cold stays
away from the coast. 42
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
5-10 inches with isolated totals of 10-12+ inches of rainfall have fallen
over the past 24 hours causing minor to major river flooding along the
Trinity River and its tributaries. Lake Livingston is showing inflows
of near 160,000 cfs and is currently releasing 98,400 cfs. Expected
impacts include extensive inundation of agricultural land, widespread
street flooding, and structure flooding along the lowest areas of the
Trinity River. Many impacts are already occurring upstream of Lake
Livingston and along tributaries. Additional impacts are expected to
worsen over the next 6-12 hours downstream of the lake and will persist
for several days.
Additional minor to moderate river flooding is expected along the E.F.
San Jacinto and Navasota Rivers. Primary impacts include street flooding
and isolated structure flooding. Rises to action stage are expected
across the majority of the San Jacinto and Brazos River basins. Most
impacts will occur within the next 24-48 hours, with some impacts lingering
into the end of the week.
Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the
new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood
threat continues.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 86 69 84 / 0 10 10 40
Houston (IAH) 68 87 71 84 / 0 20 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 71 79 72 79 / 10 20 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Adams
NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion