046
FXUS64 KHGX 022042
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Water Vapor imagery currently shows an broad upper level trough over
the Southwest CONUS, with a shortwave trough downstream currently
filling across the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi River Valley.
These two features should serve as the main driver of active weather
across much of the CONUS over the next several days. For today, the
shortwave will be the main feature of focus, with it`s deep surface
low tightening the pressure gradient and establishing a 40-60 knot
LLJ over much of the Mississippi River Valley for today. Gusty winds
reaching 25 to 35 mph continue this afternoon with a Wind Advisory
in effect through 7 PM.
As the shortwave & surface low track northeasterly, it`ll slowly
push a cold front into the vicinity. Right now, that front is moving
through the Dallas/Fort Worth area, but high resolution guidance
suggests it will slow and eventually stall out over portions of the
Brazos Valley later this evening. Showers are currently developing
north of the I-10 corridor and the environment is showing some
favorable ingredients for the development of stronger storms this
afternoon. SPC mesoscale analysis shows 30-60 knots of 6km bulk
shear in place with ML CAPE reaching around 2500-3000 J/KG. ML CIN
is around -25 to -100 J/KG presently, but HREF members have
suggested that it could fall to -10 to -50 J/KG across our northern
counties later this afternoon. Midlevel lapse rates range from 7.5-
8.5 degC/km with forecast soundings showing modest instability in
hail growth zone. In addition, these soundings are also show drier
midlevels with TEI values near 25. 3km SRH ranges from 150-250 m2s2,
though HREF members suggest that this will be decreasing over the
next few hours. HREF Updraft helicity paint balls greater than 25
m2/s2 keep north of our CWA though this afternoon, and given lacking
upper level forcing, it may prove difficult for these storms to
organize.
SPC currently has our northernmost counties under a Marginal (level
1/5) Risk of severe storms today. All severe hazards are on the
table, though damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main
hazards. The severe weather threat comes to an end later this
evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Thursday will see relatively similar conditions to that of today.
While the pressure gradient briefly weakens overnight, the
aforementioned broader trough over the Desert Southwest will spin up
another surface low over the Rockies, tightening the pressure
gradient again and reinvigorating the LLJ for Thursday. This means
another day of gusty winds reaching 25 to 35 mph. As a result,
another Wind Advisory will be in effect from 7 AM to 5 PM Thursday
for most areas along and south of the US-59 corridor.
The parameter space for Thursday remains largely unchanged compared
to today. The HREF still shows 30-60 knots of bulk shear in place on
Thursday with SFC CAPE ranging from 2000-3400 J/KG in the afternoon.
SFC CIN is progged to reach -10 to -50 J/KG in areas north of I-10
during the afternoon. Forecast soundings still show drier midlevels
with lapse rates from 7.0-8.25 degC/km. The main differences
compared to today are increased TEI values of 25-30, slightly higher
3km SRH, and greater SFC CAPE. In spite of cloudy skies, highs are
forecasted to be a tad warmer, with more areas reaching the
mid/upper 80s during the afternoon. With the stalled frontal
boundary expected to stay north of our area, there still won`t be
much forcing available to aid these storms, much like today.
SPC has our northernmost counties under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk
of severe storms on Thursday as well. Once again, all severe hazards
are on the table, though damaging winds and large hail will be the
main concern. The severe weather threat is still very conditional,
and storms could struggle to initiate due to lackluster forcing. The
severe weather threat comes to an end once again Thursday evening as
instability wanes.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Western trough will dig southward across the Desert Southwest and
northern Mexico Friday. Lead disturbances on Friday should mostly
take a trajectory along the quasi stationary frontal boundary
stretching from the Big Bend to ArkLaTex area and where better
chances of rain should be situated. But heading into late Friday
night & Saturday, a strong shortwave is expected to kick out and
track across West Texas into the Southern Plains and the front
should get a push to the south. As this occurs, we should see
better shra/tstm chances across the region and will need to keep
an eye out for some embedded stronger cells. The front should
track thru the area during the day Saturday and off the coast
Saturday evening. Suspect the front will take the majority of
available moisture with it, but some guidance is showing the
trailing trof axis not fully making it past the area til late
Monday. Regardless, we should see some much cooler wx filter into
the area behind the frontal passage (40s/60s-70s) into early next
week followed by a slow warming trend (~50/80) toward midweek. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Moderate southerly winds gusting to 20-30 knots continue this
afternoon with MVFR/VFR conditions expected. Areas further inland
will likely see more persistent VFR conditions, whereas areas
closer to the coast may see only short breaks in cloud cover or
potentially none at all. Isolated showers will be possible near
KCLL this afternoon, with low but non-zero chances for
thunderstorms. MVFR conditions fill back in this evening with
occasional IFR CIGS possible near the coast. CIGs slowly lift
Thursday morning though MVFR CIGs should persist into the
afternoon once again.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
A long fetch of 20-30kt south-southeast winds has set up across
the western Gulf and are producing 6-10ft seas. This will continue
(and probably increase another few feet) through at least
Saturday morning and Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Winds
will generally inhibit the dense fog potential, but mariners can
also anticipate some minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing
beaches around times of high tide (this includes the lowest more-
prone spots like HWY 87/124 along the Bolivar Peninsula, Western
Galveston Island, Bluewater Highway and Surfside). Chances for
showers and storms will increase ahead of a strong late season
cold front expected to push off the coast Saturday afternoon or
evening. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 88 74 88 / 10 20 20 50
Houston (IAH) 75 89 75 86 / 10 10 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 73 79 73 79 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ177-178-199-
213-226-227-235.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ178-179-199-
200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ179-200-214-
236>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
Beach Hazards Statement through late Thursday night for
TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.
&&
$$
NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion