709
FXUS64 KHGX 051026
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
426 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some shallow, patchy fog early this morning and again overnight.

- Weak, dry front pushes through the area tonight and off the
  coast toward sunrise Friday.

- Rain chances increase Saturday night and Sunday as the next
  weather system moves closer to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Temp/dewpoint spread is narrowing and would not be surprised to
see some shallow, patchy fog development prior to sunrise. It
should quickly burn off thereafter. Mid-upper trough will track
eastward across the Plains today and tonight. It`s associated
surface front should gradually push through the region overnight
and off the coast toward sunrise. GOES Total PW plot shows fairly
dry air well offshore and believe moisture recovery will be
insufficient for POPs ahead of the front, though we could see
some patchy fog development before it passes.

Model guidance seems to be in much better alignment in terms of
the overall wx pattern this weekend into early next week. The next
western trof near the Pacific Northwest will drop sse into north
central Mexico this weekend. The combination of disturbances
passing through in the swly flow aloft and a developing coastal
trough off the mid-lower Texas coast will lead to increasing rain
chances Saturday night and Sunday...especially south and west of a
Madisonville-Liberty line and offshore. With the increased cloud
cover and some precip around, daytime readings might struggle to
get out of the 60s Sunday and maybe Monday. There are some slight
timing differences as to when the mid-upper trof axis fully
pushes far enough to our east to completely pull the mention of
rain chances, but overall POPs should be on a downward trend for
most areas Monday night & Tuesday. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 426 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Brief periods of patchy fog have occurred early this morning at
LBX and SGR...this potential continues over the next few hours.
Outside of that, VFR conditions prevail throughout the day with
light southerly winds generally between 4-8kt. Another round of
patchy fog will be possible overnight into early Friday morning
ahead of an approaching cold front. Greatest potential for reduced
visibilities will be for terminals south of I-10. A cold front
begins to push through early Friday morning just before sunrise
with northwesterly winds (7-11 kt) in its wake.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1252 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Light east and southeast winds will prevail today and most of
tonight. Another cool front is forecast to push off the coast
toward, or slightly before, sunrise Friday. North and northeast
winds will increase in its wake...probably moreso east of
Freeport. There is some uncertainty in regards to wind speeds
after fropa. HRRR/NSSL guidance, which have good track records,
actually suggest the possibility for a brief period of 15-25kt
winds and the need for some short fuse Caution or Advisory flags
west of Freeport Friday morning. Other guidance (and the RRFS
which I don`t have a good feel for) is considerably lighter.

Winds should veer back around to the east northeast Friday night
and Saturday. In addition to increasing rain chances, wind speeds
and seas will gradually increase as the weekend progresses as a
coastal trough develops off the mid and lower Texas coast. Small
Craft Advisories will likely be required at some point, especially
in the Gulf waters.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  81  57  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  83  62  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  78  69  78  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion