000
FXUS64 KHGX 050545
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1145 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 353 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2022

After yesterday`s cold front pushed through much deeper into the
Gulf today than anticipated, we have gotten a bit more of a
respite with light offshore flow. However, that is changing
quickly, and we can expect a warm to lift north and have warmer,
humid Gulf air work back across the area tonight and tomorrow.
This will have two main implications on the next several days:
- One, look for sea fog currently over the nearshore Gulf waters
  and lower Galveston Bay to expand and push into coastal land
  areas tonight.
- Temperatures will reach their low early tonight, staying steady
  or rising in the overnight hours, setting us up for several days
  of above average temperatures this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2022

My discussion yesterday ended with "The fog is listening, and is
eager to make me look dumb..." and honestly, that`s probably the
most accurate part of my entire forecast yesterday. Arrived this
morning to find that the front was able to push much farther off
the coast than anticipated. As a result, solid offshore flow
developed and fog never really became a thing - not even on the
immediate coast and nearshore waters.

This, of course, was just a temporary break, but it has probably
pushed back the timing on the eventual end point. Winds, though
light and variable today, have become more northeasterly than
anything else, and we`ve gotten enough of an onshore flow for sea
fog to redevelop on the lower Galveston Bay and nearshore Gulf
waters. Winds should be expected to become more easterly through
the afternoon, and even southeasterly overnight. This puts us back
in a spot with dewpoints rising from the 50s into the middle 60s,
and with water temps in the lower 60s...yeah, we`re looking at a
night with more widespread low stratus and fog across most all of
Southeast Texas tonight.

Also, with that cloud cover and the rising dewpoints, we can
probably expect our low temperatures to come pretty early in the
night, and have steady or rising temperatures through the rest of
the night. Farther inland, we`ll see less potential for fog,
and instead more low stratus...but also a slight chance for very
light showers in the high moisture environment, and gentle upglide
of the incoming Gulf air.

Wind direction may end up being pretty important tomorrow,
especially for fog at the coast. While generally easterly winds
are big for maximizing sea fog potential, as winds turn more
southerly and especially southwesterly, it becomes less favorable
for sea fog - probably as this helps bring along slightly warmer
water and cuts down on the dewpoint/water temp spread. Anyway,
winds are expected to keep veering tomorrow and I`d expect to see
marked improvement in visibility after mid-morning. We may even
see the stratus break up - similar to what we saw today, but more
effective. With a little more sun and a higher temperature
starting point, I`ve got highs into the middle 70s to around 80
across the area.

Southerly winds stay in place into tomorrow night, so expect
another night of low stratus (but hopefully not fog, though we`ve
already covered how much it enjoys making me look dumb) and low
temperatures hung up in the lower to mid 60s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 353 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2022

The atmospheric theme during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame will be
vertical continuity. At 300mb, one will find a ridge centered
roughly over the Gulf. At 500mb, a ridge over the Gulf. Guess what
you will find at 850mb? If you answered a ridge over the Gulf then
you are correct! Surface high pressure will be situated over the
vicinity of the eastern Gulf and Florida enhancing onshore flow. The
above normal heights caused by this well stacked ridging coupled
with enhanced onshore flow will bestow upon our CWA a warm and muggy
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Highs are expected to generally be
in the low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s. Weak shortwaves
on Tuesday and Wednesday could be enough to spark off a few showers.
However, these disturbance are expected to remain just north of our
CWA due to the aforementioned ridge. Therefore, Tuesday-Wednesday
PoPs remain slight.

By Thursday, global models continue to suggest that a trailing cold
front, associated with a low pressure system moving through the
plains, will approach southeast Texas. Though the bulk of the
mid/upper level ascent remains north of the region, the weak
trailing front could provide enough lift in an environment of ample
moisture to result in scattered showers. Latest grids depict 30-40
PoPs on Thursday. PoPs decrease on Friday, though linger into the
afternoon near the coast. Temps are expected to cool somewhat in the
front`s wake on Friday. But don`t expect conditions to feel
`wintry.` Highs in most areas are expected to be well into the 70s
with lows falling into the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2022

IFR to LIFR CIGS will continue to spread across SE Texas into
Monday morning. Sea fog has begun to intrude on the Houston metro
area, bringing visibility under 1 mile. Expect these conditions to
further deteriorate through the early morning hours as light S/SE
flow propels this sea fog further inland. Conditions should begin
to improve Monday morning with VFR conditions returning by the
afternoon. Hazy conditions will linger throughout the day at KGLS
with CIGS set to return Monday night along with the possibility of
more sea fog.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2022

Winds this afternoon are gradually veering from the northeast to
east. Winds will become southeasterly this evening and more
southerly by tomorrow. This veering of the winds will push higher
moisture levels into the region resulting in an increasing risk of
fog. There is already areas of fog in the nearshore waters and lower
Galveston Bay. Fog is likely to become more widespread tonight with
conditions remaining quite foggy into the morning hours.

Winds will increase from the south by the afternoon hours and
generally remain southerly at 10-15 knots nearshore and 15-20 knots
offshore through Thursday. Seas will increase somewhat during this
time. Periods of fog will remain possible as onshore flow continues.
A weak front may push offshore by Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  59  77  65  80 /  20  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)  62  79  66  81 /  10  20   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  63  72  66  75 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for TXZ214-236>238-300-
     313-336>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ330-335-350-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion